Why am I so stupid? (AKA I NEED A FAG!!)

Here's a conundrum for you.

What are your chances of early death if you're a smoker?
The answer may surprise you, for its only 50%.

That is to say only 50% of all smokers die from a smoking related disease, or to put it another way, half of all smokers are NOT killed by their habit.

This is one of those things, the health lobby has been telling us for years that smoking is unhealthy and it kills, both of which are true, however the effect is not felt by all smokers. BUT they don't tell us that, instead the message is deliberately left to be misconstrued, that each cigarette is literally a coffin nail, hastening your death as surely as a hot curry hastens an urgent sitting on the porcelain throne.

But, if you are a smoker it need not be that bad, or good, depending upon the next piece of data. You see if a smokers close relative having been a smoker themselves succumbs to a smoking related death then the surviving relatives chance of following the bloodline apparently doubles. Since the overall chances of dying of a smoking related illness are 50%, for those whose relatives lived till they were 80 or 90 then went peacefully in their sleep despite assaulting their lungs with 20 untipped Park Drives each day, well the lucky recipient of those genes must have a far less than 50% chance of dying due to their habit, their chances may go down by 50% say, so that's only a 25% risk, the kind of risk many may deem reasonable for their daily gaspers.

But what of those whose close relatives have succumbed.... Oooeerr!

Or should that be YIPPEEE!!!

You see, take my situation, my father was an inveterate lifelong smoker and died of lung cancer at 62. As I am following in his footsteps in my lifestyle choice (smoking), this doubles my chances of following in his footsteps at death.

So far, so logical... FANTASTIC!

I am INDESTRUCTIBLE!!

Allow me to elucidate. My chances of dying of a smoking disease were 50%, until my Dad died when they doubled... so that's from 50% to 100% The chances of death are the same for me as for every carbon based lifeform, 100%. AND as they can't go any higher I must be immune for every other way of dying.

It also means I know HOW I am going to die, not in a car accident, no matter how fast I drive, not in a plane accident, even if I decide to fly Zimbabwe airlines (or even Aeroflot). Nope, I'm going to die of a smoking related disease... Its a 100% certainty!!!

I have achieved something very rare in this life, immunity from death by any sort of natural, human or unnatural means. I can drive a car off beachy head and I will survive . I can hunt down Osama Bin Laden wearing a suicide bomb and survive to collect the $100million reward afterwards! I can go Bungee jumping knowing It can't possibly kill me (I needn't even bother with the uncomfortable Bungee rope). I can go skiing down the most suicidally exciting slopes. Heck I could even read Cherie Blairs latest tome in the full knowledge I will live to tell the tale.

I could chat up Jennifer Lopez, feel up Pamela Anderson and knock up Angelina Jolie without the slightest fear of retaliation for I AM the nearest thing to INVINCIBLE.


So on this basis considering how lucky I am, why the hell have I quit smoking, and am currently chewing my feet off?

(Help)

© OddBat 2009

Barak Obama, a short view from across the pond...

In these tumultuous times I felt a more serious blog was appropriate to reflect the views I think are widely held in the UK, about the USA...

I followed the campaign from the early days, those first nervous Caucuses and Primaries.

There are 2 things that really defy belief here:-

1. That the land of the free until only a few decades ago believed that whilst all are created equal, some could be "more equal" than others. For the nation that was leading the fight against intolerence and dictatorship upon the behalf of the free world, that is a shameful fact.

2. The flexibility of America, her innate ability to adapt really shines through from this, and Barak Obamas election confirms the final victory for the US constitution.

The strength of America is in its diversity and its ability to not merely to accept, but to power through change. This election is totemic of that fabulous ability that still makes America the worlds greatest democracy.

The USA sleepwalked its way into the 21st century and was woken with a horrifying jolt by 9/11. She thought she could resolve the problems in the usual way, throwing military money at the problem... the tactic that won the 2nd World War (with the overwhelming help of the Red Army) and the Cold War too. This time it led to 2 wars and subsequent insurgencies and the USA has now learned that money is not going to solve this problem, or at least not military money. Especially with the worlds economy in freefall, led by the USA's own indebted position.

New thinking is needed, a new direction, an understanding that military money spent doesn't always solve problems (remember Yugolsavia and Vietnam?)

Obama arrives at the White House at the most critical time in American history since JFK, and in all probability Roosevelt. Luckily America does have a great record of finding the right leader at times of great adversity. The hopes of the free world rest on Americas shoulders, but once again it seems a great man has emerged to lead that great nation again, and by definition all of us.

Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man... And who can doubt that has happened in the person of Barak Obama?

© OddBat 2009

Happy 2009

I woke up on Monday and lord I felt bad,
My ears and my joints all ached like mad,
Me head was pounding and my arse felt alight,
I called up the office to say I wasnt alright.
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No sympathetic voices from the office came back,
The server had decided to fall of its rack,
So no computers could work and my staff were just waiting,
But as computers run our phones we could do no trading.
*
Not that much could have been done in any event,
As the boiler had broke on the coldest day yet,
So the staff were all freezing just standing there,
While the office manager ripped out her hair.
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Having reported in ill, I had done what was needed,
So I returned to my bed feeling duly defeated,
I had hoped for sympathy, some kindly good thoughts,
Instead I get a repair bill ending with lots of noughts.
*
So if anyone mails me saying "Happy New Year"
You will understand when I grab hold of your ear,
And yell real loudly so your eardrums crack,
"Fuck off with the New Year, give me 2008 back!"

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© OddBat 2009